Somehow, it was only 4 years ago that the eyes of the men’s rugby world fell on Japan and South Africa emerged victorious, their 3rd title, and it’s rolled around again quicker than I’d care to acknowledge. We might have had a Lions tour and Women’s World Cup in between (as well as you know, Covid) but it sure feels like this tournament has come around fast.
And so from this Friday, and for the next 8 weeks, the eyes of the rugby world will be centred on France as 20 of the top teams in men’s rugby do battle to see who will be crowned world champs. Check out the full schedule and pools here.
In this piece, I look at the teams in the hunt, and those in with a shout, before the first game kicks off later this week as the hosts France face the mighty All Blacks in an absolute barnstormer of a first game.
Legitimate Contenders
Ireland
We’ll start right at the top of the world rankings with Ireland. The number 1 ranked team in the world are on a 13-match winning streak, which includes wins over every other team in the top 10 except Argentina, and won the Grand Slam in the 2023 Six Nations. It’s tough to think that any other team comes into the World Cup with such positive energy and on such good form, and yet most of the title talk is about the next 3 nations we’ll cover. So why aren’t we talking up Ireland?
Perhaps that actually suits the boys in green. They’ve been hyped up before going into world cups, yet the Irish have never been past the quarter finals of any men’s world cup. In fact, only once in 2007, did they not get knocked out in the quarter finals and that was because they didn’t get out of their group. Maybe flying under the radar is the way they want it.
But it seems hard for a team containing Tadhg Furlong, Caelen Doris, Josh van der Flier, Hugo Keenan and Gary Ringrose (all serious options for the best player in the world at their respective positions) to be underdogs. I think if we all just stopped and looked at what they have achieved over the last 18 months, we’d realise that they have the best chance of all the countries going into the World Cup. They won a test series in New Zealand. They beat South Africa, Fiji and Australia in the Autumn Tests. Then they steamrolled the competition in the Six Nations, winning every game by at least 13 points.
A key for the Irish is that they are fit and at full strength. Almost. All of their first-choice players will be in France but the loss of Cian Healy will sting as a depth piece and probably as a big presence in the extended squad. However it likely doesn’t hurt their chances as only 2 of their current props have less than 30 caps. They have a couple of injury worries going into their opener vs Romania but they should handle the Eastern Europeans with relative ease. Andy Farrell has done a tremendous job of building experience throughout the squad and blending that experience with youth.
Even captain Johnny Sexton will be there after his run in with the rugby law makers which saw him cop a shorter ban than many expected for his actions after Leinster’s Champions Cup loss. At 38, you’d think he shouldn’t be leading the number 1 ranked country around the field every game and yet that’s what he’s been doing. It’ll be his last chance for international glory, and he’ll be more determined than ever to see them over the line.
Why might they win? Cohesion and stability. This group have been together for years now and Andy Farrell has moulded them into the perfect rugged unit. They look slick on the field and rarely do they appear flustered or out of ideas. All the things you want to be when trying to become world champions.
What might stop them going all the way? The curse of the Irish at rugby world cups? When they have the best chance ever, they get an almighty unfortunate draw. It might make them battle-hardened but the room for error is slim.
South Africa
Standing in the way of the Irish in Group B will be South Africa. The 2 will clash in a humdinger of a battle in Paris on Saturday 23rd September with the winner almost guaranteed to qualify from the group which also contains Scotland and Tonga, 2 teams not to be taken lightly.
While South Africa’s form on paper in recent months has been turbulent, when you delve deeper, maybe that was by design. Current Head Coach Jacques Nienaber has used their matches throughout 2023 to blood youngsters, test undeveloped partnerships and battle harden as many warriors as he can. Neinaber likely has his first choice 15 in mind, but having the ability to swap in players without skipping a beat will be crucial when the road to the final is treacherous.
While Ireland enter the tournament relatively healthy, the same is not quite true for South Africa. Fly half Handre Pollard missed out on the initial squad, as has centre Lukhanyo Am. Pollard may well be the first name called up in the event of an injury but for now, he’s not with the squad.For most countries, losing 2 world class backs would be devastating. For the Springboks, they just trot out the next man. Manie Libbok is not the consistent goalkicker that Pollard is, and you wonder if that might come back to haunt them at some point, but he probably offers more in broken play. Damian Willemse is the other option at 10 but he has generally failed to deliver in the green jersey. He has the potential to light up any pitch though, and did so in the 15 jersey in the Boks last outing which was a resounding thumping (their biggest ever) of New Zealand at Twickenham. How they choose to replace Am is more unclear. The obvious solution would be to give Jesse Kriel the runway at the position, but the bolter choice would be to let 20-year-old Canan Moodie stake his claim.
In the pack, talismanic captain Siya Kolisi is back after a long-term injury and will likely settle somewhere into the starting back row. Who accompanies him is anyone’s guess. The options are endless across the forward pack. In fact, the sheer number of choices might well be the problem for Nienaber. Might he end up overthinking it?
Why might they win? No team can match the physicality of the Springboks and if teams let them play their way, they won’t be stopped. And they have tremendous depth and experience right across the squad.
What might stop them going all the way? Can they navigate their way through games where teams push them to uncomfortable ground? Facing 3 of the other top 5 nations in the world right now is a tough test and that’s the gauntlet they’ll have to run. Each of those countries would love to knock off the defending champs and has the ability to do so.
New Zealand
It might seem a bit doom and gloom in regards to the All-Blacks recently as they are currently “only” the number 4 ranked team in the world and have lost their sense of invincibility but remember, until they lost to South Africa 2 weeks ago, they had won 11 tests on the bounce. Head Coach Ian Foster appears to have settled on his best 15 in the past few matches and it’s pretty stacked. The chatter around New Zealand has been building over the summer, but will they come good?
They head into this competition with their most experienced squad ever, which bodes well for when the going gets tough. There’s a decent chance that this will be the last World Cup for many of the squad including Dane Coles, Sam Whitelock, Brodie Retallick, Sam Cane and Aaron Smith. Others might be trending towards not managing another tournament. It seems only fitting that the All-Blacks will put it all together and give those players the swansong they deserve. But for that to happen, they’ll need their key players to step up. Ardie Savea has put his hand up as one of the most dominant players in the world over the last few years, now’s his chance to shine on the big stage. Same for Scott Barrett, Richie Mo’unga and Reiko Ioane.
Foster decided to stick with his tried and tested squad and partnerships rather than dip his toes into uncharted waters. After impactful seasons in Super Rugby, Foster decided not to bring in players like Shaun Steveson, Todd Christie or Ethan Blackadder. Instead, he kept players he trusted on the big stage who had perhaps underwhelmed at the domestic level like Caleb Clarke or hadn’t featured much due to injury (Will Jordan and David Havili are the obvious ones there).
Will going with what he knows lead Foster to the top of the rugby mountain (before he leaves the job, having already been told he’s getting replaced by Scott Robinson) or will it be their downfall? We’ve seen in recent years that the Kiwi forward pack can be bullied on the pitch as both South Africa and Ireland have established. But when they click between the pack and the backline, is there a country out there that could live with them? They blew South Africa out of the water in as good as 15-minute opening spell as you’ll see in July.
If they are to truly contend in 2023, they have to play at their absolute best in every game. They should get out of Group A with ease (with their opener vs France being the only real test) but then they’ll run into one of the Group B heavyweights. Both Ireland and South Africa have put them to the sword recently, and they would be fancied again. If the Kiwis are to win a record 4 title, they’ll certainly have to earn it.
Why might they win? Should we ever really doubt New Zealand? They still have some of the best players in the world and have a starting XV that rivals the best out there. And they are fresh of a Rugby Championship win.
What might stop them going all the way? It seems wild to suggest this, but are the All Blacks struggling for depth? I’m not sure a large chunk of this group would have got near the squads of the 2010s. A key injury to a frontline starter could be disastrous.
France
The hosts were heavily tipped just a few months ago as the favourites. They have a tremendous balance between dominating pack and majestic backline, all marshalled by Antonie Dupont. The wider squad named for the tournament was dominated by young, hungry players in the prime of their careers and they were at home. It was all lining up so well.
Then the injuries started. First it was starting fly-half Roman Ntamack who ruptured his ACL in their warm up win against Scotland. Cyril Baille, one of the top props in world rugby, and Jonathan Danty are carrying injuries and will miss the opening weeks, including the opener vs the All Blacks. Then Paul Willemse withdrew from the squad, taking away some more bulk from the forward pack. They’ve been able to replace those players from their wider squad but if those replacements get crocked, things will start getting dicey for the French.
Then there’s the weight of expectation. On home soil, fresh off an almost historic two year run of positive results and with all the good feelings and momentum, can the players live up to it? If they start with a bang against New Zealand on opening night, the country will be right behind them and that could end being a huge plus when they get to the quarters and face one of the brutes from Group B. But lose to the All Blacks and show any signs of weakness throughout the rest of the group stage? Then the pressure will ramp up. For a young team, that might be too much.
In their favour is the fact that they have everything you’d want a French team to have. In Dupont, they have the probably best player in the world. Julien Marchand, Cameron Woki, Gregory Alldritt, Gael Fickou, Damien Penaud and Thomas Ramos would all be considered the best in their respective positions on any given game day. The old trope about the French is that you never know what French team would turn up. In the past, that was seen as a bad thing. Now? Maybe it’s a positive. If they need to throw their weight around, sure they can do that. Game breaks up a bit and the skills can come on show? Just try and stop them. They’ve also put a nice mix of experience and youth in their squad. Only 1 player (that’s Fickou) has more than 50 caps, but 5 have less than 10, including 20-year-old winger Louis Bielle-Biarrey. Everyone else has seen a good deal of international action but they don’t have the burden of past failures in the France jersey.
Why might they win? Of all the teams lining up in France, the French might just have the best blend of brain, balance and brawn. If they can switch up game plans with minimal stress, they’ll be tough to stop.
What might stop them going all the way? Did they peak too early in 2022? They have lost to Ireland and Scotland this year (albeit the loss in Edinburgh was with a second-string team) and haven’t looked quite like the team that stormed through all comers last year.
The Chasers
It seems those 4 nations are the ones most likely to be competing for the honour of World Champions on 28th October. But what of the dark horses? Let’s take a quick rattle through the next wave of contenders in order of world ranking.
Scotland
Why might they win? This might be the strongest squad Scotland have assembled for a world cup and it’s littered with players of the highest quality. Finn Russell, Duhan van der Merwe, Darcy Graham and Rory Darge could start for almost any team in the world, and a few others would be close. And they are clicking, it’s been a while since they looked well off the pace.
What might stop them going all the way? It’s the draw. They’d be doing extremely well to even get out of the group given they haven’t beaten South Africa since 2010 and Ireland since 2017. And if they did somehow progress, they’d run into France (who they have competed well against in recent years) or New Zealand (who they’ve never, ever beaten). So yea, tough break Scots.
Argentina
Why might they win? For them, it’s also the draw. They are the highest ranked team in their half of the draw. None of the teams in pools C or D are in especially good form but Argentina are maybe the most likely to put it all together for the longest time. They beat Australia in the summer and almost had South Africa beaten once too.
What might stop them going all the way? This isn’t the same Argentina who’ve done so well in past years. How many of their team would be considered world class? Maybe Marcos Kramer and Pablo Matera at a push. Los Pumas need everything to go in their favour and some unheralded players to step up to be in with a chance.
Fiji
Why might they win? We all know the Fijian flair and unbridled DGAF attitude that Fiji bring to rugby, but they are finally showing that they can truly hang in the elite men’s game and are currently at their highest ever world ranking (at 7th if you didn’t know). Having a Super Rugby franchise has exposed many more of their players to what is required to win the toughest of games and it’s given them a chance to gel more players together. If it all clicks, they could well beat anyone on their day.
What might stop them going all the way? Can they put 7 of those days together over a 2-month period? I don’t think so. The loss of Caleb Muntz robs them of their pivot and string puller at fly-half and that has been a common problem for Fiji in the past.
England
Why might they win? Despite it all, they still have an interesting blend of talent, experience and edge. The likes of Maro Itoje, Freddie Steward and Ellis Genge can drag this England team through games and if they get the momentum building in a so-so group, it’s not beyond the realm of possibility that they could repeat their run to the final from 2019.
What might stop them going all the way? Their absolutely miserable form. A first ever loss to Fiji. A dour defeat to Wales and a laughable come from behind win over the same team. They have discipline issues everywhere and Steve Borthwick appears to be rearranging deckchairs on a sinking ship without any real plan or urgency. If they get caught napping in the group, they might well be going home after 4 games. It was bad when that happened in their home world cup, might it be even worse in France?
Australia
Why might they win? Because Eddie Jones has a habit of pulling rabbits out of a hat when you least expect it. He did it with Japan in 2015 and England in 2019. If Eddie can get a strong 15 out there, throwing the ball around and performing well at the basics like set-piece and in the kicking game, could they cause a few surprises?
What might stop them going all the way? Because Eddie Jones has a habit of doing bewildering things. He decided to not take Michael Hooper and Quade Cooper to France, despite both looking like starter options throughout the Rugby Championship. That means he has entrusted to the 10 jersey, and goal kicking responsibilities, to Carter Gordon, an exciting young prospect from the Melbourne Rebels. But he only made his first appearance in the Green and Gold in the summer and doesn’t kick for the Rebels. It really doesn’t look like Australia are going into this tournament with any real expectations.
Sean black - Freelance writer 