The 2024 draft is fast approaching, and it brings with it more intrigue than previous years because of how highly regarded this year’s quarterback group is. They are led by Caleb Williams (USC) who is safely expected to be the first overall pick, meaning he’ll be heading off to Chicago to try and turnaround the fortunes of the Bears who have long desired a franchise quarterback. It’s possible we could see up to 5 more QBs go in the first round, depending on how the teams towards the end of the round view Bo Nix (Oregon) and Michael Penix Jr (Washington). A safer bet would be to expect 5 to be drafted in round one, with Williams joined by Drake Maye (North Carolina), Jayden Daniels (LSU) and J.J. McCarthy (Michigan), in some order, with one of Nix or Penix to go late.
The 2024 class also looks to be heavy on uber-talented wide receivers, tackles and cornerbacks, whereas it’s not the most compelling group of running backs, linebackers and safeties ever. Overall, the offensive side of the ball is expected to feature more prominently during the first round, but at the end of the day, that doesn’t mean they’ll make the biggest difference once the 2024 season kicks off in September.
The top players will be covered in more detail in other places, but our attention here turns to the teams that might be the biggest difference makers throughout the draft, the teams who control the board. These are the teams who are in positions to make big moves, change the outlook of the teams around them or might be the ones to shake it up. Let’s start towards the top of the draft…
Arizona Cardinals
I think we can be reasonably confident that the top 3 picks in the draft will be quarterbacks, although the order might be a little muddy. Even if Washington or New England decides to trade out, the team coming up would only do so for a QB. That leaves the Arizona Cardinals at 4 as the first big question mark pick. They have their quarterback (for now) in Kyler Murray, so this comes down to what they feel is going to be the move that benefits him and the team the most. They could stick and pick, with Marvin Harrison Jr (Ohio State) being the obvious selection to beef up their receiver group. Malik Nabers (LSU) could be in discussion here too if the Cards have him ranked higher than Harrison, but the general consensus is that MHJ is the superior talent and prospect and should be the first non-QB off the board. It’s not out of the realm of possibility though that they go offensive line here to beef up the protection of Murray and try to kickstart a so-so running game with Joe Alt (Notre Dame) the likeliest option, and then they could come back for a receiver with a later pick.
The other outcome for Arizona would be to trade out, a situation which is only really likely if some other team (perhaps the next one we’ll discuss) desperately wants to come up to get the 4th quarterback. In that scenario, the Cards would be dropping towards the back of the top 10 or into the early teens (with additional picks collected in either this draft or future ones) and the options of offensive line, receiver and any defensive player they might want all come into consideration. I think that unless they are absolutely in love with Harrison Jr, this would be their preferred outcome, trade back, stockpile picks, and build up a roster that needs a lot of attention. The Cardinals lead the league with 13 picks in the draft, including a 2nd first rounder, so they have lots of options for moving around the board, and with so many holes to fill, having plenty of draft picks is no bad thing.
And what about the Chaos Option? They take the 4th quarterback and trade Murray. Unlikely, but crazier things have happened.
Minnesota Vikings
The Vikings enter the draft with 9 picks, of which only 2 are their own. The crucial factor which makes them a big draft day player is that they own 2 first round picks, at 11 and 23. Pick 11 is their own, but they traded a 2024 second and sixth, and a 2025 second to the Texans for number 23 in mid-March. This gives them plenty of ammo to make a big move, and that seems increasingly like the play they want to make. Such a move would be for one reason only and that’s to go get a quarterback after they just saw Kirk Cousins walk out the door and choose not to replace him with a long-term viable option. Having made the trade for the 2nd first rounder on 15th March and making no subsequent trade (as of now) means they don’t appear desperate to make the move up, instead it seems more likely that they’ll wait for the fog of (draft) war to lift a little before deciding their next move.
The 2 crucial factors will be what quarterback they want, and where can they get up to. They would likely have to be comfortable with all 4 of the presumed top options (we can almost disregard Williams but best to be prepared) and then hope someone towards the top will trade out. The most obvious move would be going up to 4 with Arizona and taking whoever falls to there. If Arizona stick and pick, and it’s not a quarterback, then the Chargers at 5 become the target so they can get ahead of the New York Giants who might be in the quarterback market. If they absolutely love one of the options, there might be a chance to trade with Washington or New England, but with both of them needing their own quarterback, I find that unlikely.
The other outcome to consider is, what happens if as the draft approaches, they aren’t willing or able to move up for a QB? In that case, they could trade one of the first rounders away for future assets, or just pick 2 first round talents. Whatever happens, Minnesota will have a big say in the first round of the draft.
Buffalo Bills
Coming off another AFC East title, the Bills should be thinking of how to add talent to get over the hump and finally get to the Super Bowl. Instead, this off-season has been anything but straight-forward. They Bills have had to completely retool on defence after moving on from a number of key contributors and team captains, all of whom were on hefty contracts that the team couldn’t afford to keep on the books. And then they traded star wide receiver, Stefon Diggs, who they sent to Houston (along with draft picks) for a 2nd round pick next year, as rumours of his unhappiness and disruptive nature swirled. The Bills find themselves in an uncomfortable position of harbouring Super Bowl hopes, but needing help in a number of positions, picking at number 28 and having no 3rd round pick. On the positive side, they do have 10 picks in the draft and plenty of opportunities to pick up cheap young talent.
But the question is for Brandon Beane, how do you fill out the roster with draft picks to keep up your title aspirations? They almost certainly need to draft a receiver in the 1st or 2nd round. Do you stick at 28 and hope someone like Adonai Mitchell (Texas), Brian Thomas Jr (LSU) or Ladd McConkey (Georgia) is available, or do you go all in, bundle a number of picks together and launch yourself into the top 10 for Nabers or Rome Odunze (Washington)? Or might they go defence in round 1 and come back for a receiver at pick 60 in the 2nd round? They need help in the secondary, along the defensive line (at both edge and interior), and along the offensive line, so they can’t really afford to commit too many resources to the receiver position. Beane and Sean McDermott have plenty to do and as such, this is a critical draft for them and the franchise so expect them to be big players over the 3 days.
Carolina Panthers
The Carolina Panthers were comfortably the worst team in the league last season. And yet their first pick in this year’s draft isn’t until day 2, courtesy of their blockbuster 2023 trade with the Bears which saw them go up to the number 1 pick to select Bryce Young. While that hasn’t yet paid off, the Panthers must use the 2024 edition as the start of a new beginning for Young and the franchise as a whole.
Even though they have no first round pick, they will control the board as round two starts given they are scheduled to pick first and seventh. They only have 7 picks over the whole draft so it’s hard to imagine that a team with so many holes on the roster will trade away picks to move up, but they might be tempted to bundle the 2 that open the second round if there’s a premium target available in the late first round. But at what position? Wide receiver is perhaps the most pressing need given they have a new offensive-minded head coach in Dave Canales and they need to maximum the opportunity for Young, so they might well be looking at jumping ahead of the likes of Buffalo and Kansas City to get any of the names that fall that far. Otherwise, it would be offensive line, cornerback or maybe edge rusher.
On the other hand, sitting at the first pick of day 2 might give them a chance to trade out and gather up some more picks. With so much time between the end of round 1 and the start of round 2, there might well be a team that ruminants overnight and decides it has to move up to get somebody with that first pick of the day. It’s actually less common than you might expect for a team to pull off that move (I believe the last time a team traded up to the first pick of round 2 was 2015), but it might make sense if a presumed first round talent falls out of day 1. The Panthers also own the first picks in rounds 3 and 4, so expect first year GM Dan Morgan to look to shuffle himself around the board plenty as the Panthers seek to improve on a disastrous 2023.
San Francisco 49ers
Last seasons defeated Super Bowl participants, who have the 31st pick in the first round, are going to be key players because of the sheer number of picks they have, 10 in total, and their impressive track record in drafting key players in the later round. The Niners are a team much like the Bills that are looking for the additions to push them over the top, so this year’s draft will tell us a lot about how they intend to tackle the 2024 season. San Francisco are a team filled with elite talent, but that means they are a team filled with expensive contracts. The best way to compete in that scenario is to hit on young draft picks who can contribute right away. That has been a big part of why Kansas City have been so successful over recent seasons, but the Niners have almost as good a track record. They do have sizeable gaps on the offensive line and at cornerback, and could use help at edge, at receiver (especially if Brandon Aiyuk doesn’t get paid) and at linebacker. Best way to fill those out, use your 10 picks and take as many shots as you can.
But being conservative isn’t really the way of the Niners. They like to take big swings and go all in. So with their 10 picks, and potentially trade bait like Aiyuk, don’t be shocked if the Niners are very active over the draft and move around the board plenty. In a draft stacked with tackle talent, will sitting at 31 be enough to get a significant 2024 contributor? Potentially not and so they would likely need to go up into the late teens or early twenties to get that player. It would be a similar story if they wanted to go up in round 1 for a receiver, or one of the top cornerbacks if the likes of Terrion Arnold (Alabama), Quinyon Mitchell (Toledo) or Nate Wiggins (Clemson) fall to that same range.
The real factor comes in how they operate in the mid rounds. We know they’ve had plenty of success at that stage of the draft over the years and with 6 selections across rounds four to six, including 3 across 11 slots in round four, expect them to be keen to move around to get the players they desire. I’d particularly expect them to go after receiver, linebacker, and interior offensive line in those rounds, and I don’t expect them to sit and wait for their target to fall to them. How they manoeuvre around the mid-round with all their assets will be the big key to day 3 (assume they don’t ship all those picks out on days 1 and 2).
Sean black - Freelance writer 