November brings us the Autumn Nations Series as international rugby makes a welcome return to soften the blow of darkening days and worsening weather. In years gone by, it was simply just known as the Autumn Internationals and often covered 3 weeks, but over time, it’s developed into a more structured “series”, primarily guided by TV money (as these things tend to be), and takes place over the entire month. There are other autumn internationals on (more on those in a bit) but the Autumn Nations Series gives the top teams in the world the chance to face off in the Northern Hemisphere before the calendar turns over to 2025.
As the first games kick off this weekend, what are the major storylines to be watching out for?
Who will end the year at number 1?
It is deeply unfortunate we don’t get another Ireland vs South Africa clash after their titanic two game summer series in South Africa ended with one win each. Both teams will feel they have the rightful claim to the claim as the top team in the world and perhaps results over the next month might solidify one teams claim.
For the incumbent top ranked team Ireland, they face New Zealand, Argentina, Fiji and Australia throughout the month. It is not unreasonable to think they could win all four of those matches, with the first game against the All Blacks being the big one. Argentina have blown hot and cold so far this year, but it would be a considerable upset if they were to beat Ireland in Ireland. Having said that, they did beat New Zealand on their home turf so it’s not impossible. Australia are amidst a rebuild under former Ireland coach Joe Schimdt and probably won’t have enough to get a result. They have a few fresh faces around the squad and a few big names nursing injuries, but their blend of youth and experience will give them great confidence heading into these games. If Ireland can win all 4 games, it’ll be hard to see past them as having the best claim for the top team in the world.
South Africa will hope to make their own argument as the number 1 team, to go alongside their World Cup triumph in 2023. They do play just three matches on their tour, visiting Scotland, England and Wales and will be expecting to win all three. They should get good challenges at Murrayfield and Twickenham but on current form, the Springboks should have enough in the tank to handle both teams. Anything less than a sweep will be a disappointing return given the crop of talent available to Rassie Erasmus and his management team. Their team is relatively unchanged from that that won both the World Cup and the Rugby Championship, though they do have a couple of key injuries. But if we’ve seen one thing from this South Africa team in recent years, it is their ability to seamlessly insert new blood into their squad. Expect to see one unknown make a name for themselves this November.
What version of England will we see?
After years of inconsistency and mild to moderate turmoil, it is probably about time that England re-established themselves back at the top table of world rugby. They play host to New Zealand, Australia, South Africa and Japan in November, a really tough slate but it gives England a chance to make some noise. 2 wins will be the minimum expectation, with hopes of a 3rd and dreams of a clean sweep. If they do manage to turn over either New Zealand or South Africa it will be a big shock based on recent form but an England team firing on all cylinders should be challenging those teams. On paper, England have all the pieces to put it together, but for whatever reason, they just have not in recent years. The Japan game brings the return of Eddie Jones to London and while he would love nothing more than upsetting England, that would be a huge result that could send England into a tailspin (again).
Can New Zealand finally click under Scott Robertson?
Heralded as the man to return the All Blacks to the top of world rugby, it’s been a bumpy start to international coaching for Robertson. He’s not settled on a starting team yet, with the 10 jersey being particularly turbulent, and the team is clearly missing the level of leadership after a wave of retirements post 2023 World Cup. With games against England, Ireland, France and Italy, New Zealand have a chance to stamp their authority on international rugby again. They’ll be expecting three wins, and hoping for four. Winning all 4 might well be the expectation back home for the All Blacks, but if we take a step back, that would be an exceptional result. Anything less than 3 wins might get some tough questions circulating though, so as much as they might want to be looking ahead, the All Blacks also need to win now. Equally pressing, Robertson will want to start settling on a first-choice team on this tour to take into next year, as well as finding out who the next generation of players will be.
Will Scotland take the next step?
Scotland’s November will see them face heavy weights South Africa and Australia, a tough Fiji side and up-and-coming Portugal. 3 wins will be the hope, perhaps the expectation given recent results against Australia. But if the Scots really want to make a statement, they need to really take South Africa the distance. They might not have to win, but they need to stand up and be counted against the world champs after barely throwing a punch in recent encounters. It’ll be tough, but the Scots are relatively injury-free heading into this series so this might be their best chance. Gregor Townsend could also really do with proving to some of his doubters that he can maximise the available talent and that it is not him holding back this group.
How much will November impact the 2025 Lions tour?
2025 sees the Lions head Down Under to Australia. For England, Wales, Scotland and Ireland, this will be a chance for some players to start to put themselves in contention for Lions consideration. The Six Nations will likely have more weighting for Andy Farrell and his coaching staff, but this is where the build up for that starts. There’s probably north of 20 spots already locked down (injuries withstanding) but plenty more are up for grabs. And there’s always a late bolter in Lions teams, expect that player to pop up throughout this month and start to get heads turning.
For Australia, they really need to use this tour to kick start almost everything. They need to start to solidify a team that can compete with those at the top of the rankings. They need to start notching up wins after getting only one in the Rugby Championship. And they really need to get the Australian public back onside after years of dysfunction and heavy losses. The Green and Gold face all 4 home nations so will get an excellent chance to see potential Lions opponents in the flesh, but they need some good performances and results to change the narrative that they’ll get steamrolled next year.
Will we see an upset?
Most of the focus in on the big boys, but a few of the underdogs will have their chance over the next month. Fiji visit Scotland, Wales and Ireland, Japan go to France and England, and Portugal also visit Edinburgh to face the Scots. Fiji seem best placed to nab an upset and will be targeting the Scotland and Wales games for that win, and as mentioned earlier, Japan (especially Eddie Jones) would love to beat England. But overall, it might be a struggle for those 3 teams so for me, the most likely result is that none of them notch a win in those fixtures. The most disappointing aspect of the whole series is that we really don’t have that many games featuring the smaller nations. Georgia only get a game against Italy in the series, although they’ll also face the All Blacks XV (i.e. their 2nd string), and the likes of Tonga, Chile and Uruguay are left to play amongst themselves in other internationals throughout the month. It still feels as though there’s a long way to go to get those teams outside of the top 11 involved in these fixtures despite pledges to better incorporate them.
Sean black - Freelance writer 